I'm coming late to this, I realize, but if you haven't already read it, take a look at Nate Silver's article about weather prediction in the NY Times Magazine of September 9. It's a good explanation of the uncertainty that goes into making predictions based on statistical models, and the assumptions and corrections that are required.

Silver demonstrates how dramatically weather predictions have improved over the last few decades. For an example, you can see my post from last year about the predicted path of Hurricane Irene here, and a follow up post here.

The article is an excerpt from Silver's forthcoming book "The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't."

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