"Double Entry" by Jane Gleeson-White

Anyone interested in numbers and the history of math will enjoy "Double Entry: How the Merchants of Venice Created Modern Finance" by Jane Gleeson-White. It's a new history of the development of mathematics and accounting from the Renaissance forward, with a particular emphasis on the work of the mathematician Luca Pacioli. Gleeson-White is Australian, and brings a refreshing perspective to the convoluted politics of her story. The history of double-entry bookkeeping is necessarily entwined with the conversion from Roman to Arabic numerals and the development of the printing press. Pacioli documented and standardized bookkeeping, and gave the world a versatile tool. His timing was such that his description was published and distributed throughout Europe.

The first six chapters take us through the 19th century, when double-entry bookkeeping was adapted to take account of the developments of the industrial revolution (expenses of man-made components like rail ties are conceptually different from a good that is traded away, like a gallon of wine.) This part of the book is lucid and interesting, though it might have been enhanced by illustrations that match the glory of the cover illustration.

Gleeson-White loses her way a bit in the final four chapters, forgetting that she is talking about a tool - instead she reifies double-entry bookkeeping into the cause of many social ills. Her point that we do not account for the environmental costs of many of our actions is a good one, but that is not because of the tool. On accounting for environmental costs, today's New York Times carries an interesting article on Ireland's three-year history of carbon taxes. One short quote:

“We are not saints like those Scandinavians — we were lapping up fossil fuels, buying bigger cars and homes, very American,” said Eamon Ryan, who was Ireland’s energy minister from 2007 to 2011. “We just set up a price signal that raised significant revenue and changed behavior. Now, we’re smashing through the environmental targets we set for ourselves.”

By contrast, carbon taxes are viewed as politically toxic in the United States. Republican leaders in Congress have pledged to block any proposal for such a tax, and President Obama has not advocated one, although the idea has drawn support from economists of varying ideologies.

 Cover image via Amazon.com

Adam Davidson on statistics and narrative

If you haven't yet read Adam Davidson's article "God Save the British Economy" in yesterday's New York Times Magazine click on the link and read it. It's a very clear explanation of the British government's economic austerity policy and related criticism. From this blog's perspective it's also an explicit and important description of the use of statistics in forming narrative - the narrative that we use to make sense of the world.

Here's one example from the article:

Economics often appears to be an exercise in number-crunching, but it actually resembles storytelling more than mathematics. Before the members of the Monetary Policy Committee gather for their monthly meeting, they sit through a presentation from the Bank of England’s economic staff. The staff members take the most recent economic data — G.D.P. growth, the unemployment rate and more subtle details gathered from interviews with businesspeople throughout the country — and try to fashion it into a narrative. Does a sudden spike in new factory orders represent a fundamental shift, or is it just a preholiday blip? Do anecdotal reports of rising food prices herald a period of inflation, or is it the result of a cold snap? Which story feels truer?

I've often talked about the importance of thinking about the statistics we use, understanding the context and thinking about the cognitive choices we are making when we develop and interpret the statistics. In this story Davidson dissects a set of choices. Read it and think about it - and tell me what you think in the comments.

Year in revew, from Google

Google has released this cool video, showing how we searched over the course of the year. And there's more data here: searches, images, TV shows, events and more. Have fun.

I'll be posting intermittently and infrequently between now and January 2. Happy New Year, and thanks for reading.

Identifying a poor work environment, and some things you can do about it

Here's a link to a useful article "Fight the Nine Symptoms of Corporate Decline" by Rosabeth Moss Kanter on the Harvard Business Review HBR Blog network (free when you register). Here are the warning signs Kanter identifies:

• Communication decreases
• Criticism and blame increase
• Respect decreases
• Isolation increases
• Focus turns inward
• Rifts widen and inequities grow
• Aspirations diminish
• Initiative decreases
• Negativity spreads

Though the examples may be from private business, the symptoms can occur in not-for-profits too. In fact, I've worked in places with some or all of these symptoms, and she's right, they are a warning of troubled times. This is a good checklist to use to take the temperature of your office. But just because you see a warning sign, you're not necessarily on an extended downward slide. Kanter continues with some ways to shift a culture to more successful habits:

• Keep communication open and information flowing. Foster widespread problem-solving dialogue. Face facts openly and honestly.
• Emphasize personal responsibility. Refuse to listen to attacks on others and ask each person to take responsibility for his or her part of a problem.
• Model respect for talent and achievements at every level. Offer frequent public thanks. Praise those who meet high standards while helping poor performers improve (or weeding them out if they don't).
• Convene conversations across groups. Involve diverse cross-cutting teams in problem-solving.
• Stress common purpose. Communicate inspiring goals larger than any individual or group. Find a grand challenge to unite people.
• Work on reducing inequities and status differences. Require the privileged to mentor and help others. Spread extra resources to many groups, and encourage joint projects or shared service. Provide opportunities for learning and growth.
• Raise aspirations. Use small wins to show the potential for bigger successes. Encourage realistic stretch goals and offer people the help to reach them.
• Reward initiative. Provide time or small grants to work on new ideas. Make brainstorming a habit.
• Reinforce the positive by saying and demonstrating that change is possible. Ignore the voices of negativity.

Common sense, yes. But hard to do unless you are really thinking about your environment.

Warm November weather

Weird December weather - not to mention October and November - when was the last time you saw a white Christmas? Climate Central is reporting that November 2012 was the 333d straight month when average temperatures exceeded the 20th century average. That's 27 years. And since 15 of those years were in the 20th century and included in the average, well, that's bad news.

Climate Central also says:

Much of the world saw warmer-than-average temperatures during November. Warmer-than-average weather affected Australia, the Central and Western U.S., northern Africa, far eastern Russia, and central Asia. The small European nation of Croatia was particularly mild during November, with temperatures ranging from 4.3°F to 7.9°F above average during the month.

Neuroscience research

Yesterday Columbia University announced a very large gift establishing the endowment for the Zuckerman Mind Brain Behavior Institute at Columbia. In addition to its timeliness it's an exciting effort to bring together work in neuroscience, decision-making, imaging with the humanities. The institute will build on the work of Nobel Laureates Eric Kandel and Richard Axel, among others. If you haven't Kandel's books "In Search of Memory" and "The Age of Insight" (my review of the latter in the Brooklyn Bugle is here) I highly recommend them. And here's an earlier post of mine with links to some interesting articles about the science of decision-making.

Columbia held a forum on interdisciplinary neuroscience  in conjunction with the announcement. From the discussion it's clear that the institute is still taking shape. The panelists mostly described the contributions the various disciplines will bring, and they expressed some hopes for useful research in the first decade.

Richard Axel spoke more philosophically (and I am paraphrasing). Axel said that the brain is the most complex structure in the universe, and we don't understand it. We have learned that an individual alone cannot understand the brain - and plenty of individuals in disciplines ranging from philosophy to biology have tried. Moreover, the mind doesn't lend itself to verbal description. The institute is being formed to find new ways to address the problem.

The mind is particularly elusive, Axel went on, because neurons (nerve cells) are not like liver cells or heart cells, where genes control the behavior. Neurons themselves do not control behavior either; that is the job of neurosystems. Neurosystems are large and complex, with trillions of connections. The brain itself abstracts each system - and translates higher order notions into the firing of neurons. It's like abstract art, he said. And the task is to understand the meaning of this abstraction.

It will be interesting to see, in 30 years, what the institute looks like. Meanwhile, you can read Columbia's press release and watch a short video about the institute here.

Some gun data

The Guardian has posted an interactive US Gun Crime Map on its data blog. The screenshot above shows the percent change in firearms murders per 100,000 population between 2010 and 2011. (Note that no data are available for Alabama and Florida.)


You can also see firearms murders as a percent of all murders, firearms murders per 100,000 population in 2010 and 2011, and firearms assaults and robberies per 100,000 population. It's interesting.