tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-50298527825124088142024-02-21T00:32:55.259-05:00Alexandra Bowie ConsultingAlexandra Bowiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11673875373023042706noreply@blogger.comBlogger385125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5029852782512408814.post-62201120293428536862015-03-17T08:39:00.004-04:002015-03-17T08:40:26.605-04:00Sad but useful lessons from the FEGS ImplosionCapital New York has a very interesting <a href="http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/albany/2015/03/8564054/wrecking-blue-chip-new-york-nonprofit" target="_blank">story</a> about the collapse of FEGS -<br />
<br />
The story describes several critical issues, including:<br />
<ul>
<li>A large number of for-profit efforts that FEGS propped up with cash infusions:</li>
</ul>
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">It is unclear whether FEGS’ for-profit firms ever made any money. And
disclosure documents show the reverse—that the charity has for years
been propping up the for-profit subsidiaries with a steady stream of
funding.</span></blockquote>
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><a href="http://forward.com/articles/215978/why-did-fegs-funnel-millions-to-for-profit-tech-su/">Last week, the<i> Forward</i> reported</a>
that the charity began transferring millions of dollars to the
for-profit subsidiaries by 2011. Returns reviewed by Capital show FEGS
moving $8.6 million from the nonprofit side to one for-profit
information technology company, AllSector, in 2011. In 2012, the charity
transferred even more: $9.1 million.</span></blockquote>
<ul>
<li> Loans:</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">To build up its housing portfolio, FEGS routinely had gone to a
variety of city and state funding sources over the past decade, seeking
millions of dollars’ worth of advances on construction and capital
costs for their new facilities, taking out<b> </b>low-interest loans that it didn’t have the means to pay back. </span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;"> </span><span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">From
the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development, the charity
received $800,000 in advances for housing developments and S.R.O.s. From
the state’s Office of Mental Health, more than $3.4 million for
facilities in East New York and the Bronx. And for more than a decade,
FEGS, like many other nonprofit institutions around the state, had
been financing new projects with money from bond proceeds through the
Dormitory Authority of the State of New York, a state public
authority.</span></blockquote>
But read the full article and decide for yourself: could board oversight have been stronger? Alexandra Bowiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11673875373023042706noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5029852782512408814.post-16413846285665564552015-02-09T15:11:00.002-05:002015-02-09T15:11:42.108-05:00Schools can learn from dataLet's face it: schools use data all the time. That's what grades are - grades on tests, quizzes, papers, finals. They all roll up into a final grade, and the grade tells the student - and a bunch of other people, including other teachers, parents, and admissions officers, whether a student is 'good' at something.<br />
<br />
So why backtrack from the work that the Department of Education began under the Bloomberg administration? That's exactly what Chancellor Carmen Farina appears to be doing, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/08/nyregion/chancellor-carmen-farina-changes-new-york-city-schools-course.html" target="_blank">according to</a> yesterday's New York <i>Times</i>.<br />
<br />
Notwithstanding Farina's statement "I know a good quality school when I'm in the building," schools should look at comprehensive data. They can learn from it. We may not yet have had all the conversations about what are the right data, and about how to interpret it, but ignoring it? Not a good way to improve schools.<br />
<br />
For a more detailed view of Chancellor Farina's attitude toward data, see Robert Pondiscio's article "Because Carmen Farina Says So" in City Journal, <a href="http://www.city-journal.org/2015/eon0114rp.html" target="_blank">here</a>.Alexandra Bowiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11673875373023042706noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5029852782512408814.post-82148111259723412392013-11-12T14:31:00.000-05:002013-11-12T14:31:00.681-05:00The Cost Disease, Part 2In an <a href="http://asbowie.blogspot.com/2012/12/the-cost-disease-why-computers-get.html" target="_blank">earlier post</a>, I reviewed "The Cost Disease: Why Computers Get Cheaper and Health Care Doesn't" by William J. Baumol and others. I highly recommend the book, for reasons I set out in the in the review.<br />
<br />
Those reasons mostly did not have to do with health care. So I wanted to point out a few of the suggestions Baumol makes in the chapter "Yes, We can Cut Health Care Costs Even if we Cannot Control Their Growth Rate." The cost disease, as Baumol and company define it, relates to the rate of growth of costs. But we can still limit some costs - which will reduce the cost level. How do we do so? Here are Baumol's suggestions:<br />
<ol>
<li>Use statistical methods to improve the evaluation of medical treatments (Baumol offers several cautions, including ones I've discussed before - be aware of sampling errors, don't confuse correlation and causation).</li>
<li>Avoid harmful or unnecessary treatments and procedures - he cites the rising C-section rate as one example.</li>
<li>Increase the use of genetic information to guide medication and treatment.</li>
<li>Identify less expensive treatments, new and old.</li>
<li>Practice preventive medicine</li>
<li>Make lifestyle changes - more exercise, consume fewer fats</li>
<li>Reform the medical liability system.</li>
<li>Make changes in medical education, and changes in health insurance practices.</li>
</ol>
Alexandra Bowiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11673875373023042706noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5029852782512408814.post-73608604268931689402013-09-27T08:09:00.001-04:002013-09-27T08:09:44.336-04:00Google's Tubes in pictures.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmQ-vONhBibr1ylKH1OqkDifT2pPBAhcaIqNRvpU4vMRhGYY9RIsIk4WA1Rb9MCCDu-Lnu9qGPoX5CXzUEXltHBjchpo0yNmKmiM3t0GsvPWCAXpU_hC7BEKKYZh7GDWdNTfnvQNkiAvg/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-09-23+at+10.20.13+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="227" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmQ-vONhBibr1ylKH1OqkDifT2pPBAhcaIqNRvpU4vMRhGYY9RIsIk4WA1Rb9MCCDu-Lnu9qGPoX5CXzUEXltHBjchpo0yNmKmiM3t0GsvPWCAXpU_hC7BEKKYZh7GDWdNTfnvQNkiAvg/s320/Screen+Shot+2013-09-23+at+10.20.13+AM.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
The Internet may be a series of tubes - and wires and pipes that hold them. They are big. And, at the moment, colorful, as you can see in <a href="http://www.forbes.com/pictures/eikk45edglg/colorful-pipes-in-the-dalles-2/" target="_blank">this series of pictures</a> of Google's data centers from Forbes Magazine. Here's one more, of cooling pipes:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhE9ygFVaiQdqvnRH2e1iOaBsndY6zt-ZAFpXLxS9lds5oup3sfRgz1mT5z3GfZtALByh49u2WpGaeG8plZjvYCAWfjm52KWKySMks0JhTkszg7Bmn8yIbJmr9fKFMpm5YaILuuYh0Yntw/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-09-23+at+10.28.37+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhE9ygFVaiQdqvnRH2e1iOaBsndY6zt-ZAFpXLxS9lds5oup3sfRgz1mT5z3GfZtALByh49u2WpGaeG8plZjvYCAWfjm52KWKySMks0JhTkszg7Bmn8yIbJmr9fKFMpm5YaILuuYh0Yntw/s320/Screen+Shot+2013-09-23+at+10.28.37+AM.png" width="320" /></a> </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
The series as a whole is spectacular. Take a look.</div>
<br />
<br />Alexandra Bowiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11673875373023042706noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5029852782512408814.post-29152427918773560652013-09-26T17:30:00.003-04:002013-09-26T17:30:35.161-04:00Is wine tasting reliable and consistent? Study says no<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIpljQ0Io20JL51cOdwncCnC4SvR5dlY6tSpzFkyvH8BrYuXh8U4kizYfH-iUZy0O62mTudLtTn1v71v89oHC4QZrmwZj1d7hayRChyLKGASqr2XFGZn1RSJwjrZNd5s-LdkCiXCrA9Rs/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-09-26+at+5.22.54+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIpljQ0Io20JL51cOdwncCnC4SvR5dlY6tSpzFkyvH8BrYuXh8U4kizYfH-iUZy0O62mTudLtTn1v71v89oHC4QZrmwZj1d7hayRChyLKGASqr2XFGZn1RSJwjrZNd5s-LdkCiXCrA9Rs/s320/Screen+Shot+2013-09-26+at+5.22.54+PM.png" width="317" /></a></div>
Think you can tell good wine from less good wine in a blind tasting? Think again. Robert Hodgson, a professor turned vintner, has published a study analyzing the performance of expert judges in the California State Fair wine competition for the years 2005-2008. His conclusion? In about half the cases the wine, and only the wine was the deciding factor. <br />
<br />
How could he tell? Judges try wine in flights of about 30 wines each. The researchers included three different pours of four wines in one of the flights, so each judge tried four wines three times. The wine was poured from the same bottle each time. You can read the full article <a href="http://www.letastevin.org/Hodgson%202008%20Examination%20of%20judge%20reliability%20at%20major%20us%20wine%20competition.pdf" target="_blank">here</a>. Interestingly, the article suggests that judges were more consistent at judging wine they thought was of very low quality.<br />
<br />
But wait, there's more. Hodgson was able to compare judge performance from year to year. According to <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2013/jun/23/wine-tasting-junk-science-analysis" target="_blank">this article</a> in the Guardian:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">"The results are disturbing," says Hodgson from the <a href="http://fieldbrookwinery.com/" title="">Fieldbrook Winery</a>
in Humboldt County, described by its owner as a rural paradise. "Only
about 10% of judges are consistent and those judges who were consistent
one year were ordinary the next year.</span></blockquote>
Wine is complex, and a lot goes into tasting it, including the wine's temperature and what the taster ate earlier that day. So if you pick wine by the medals it has won, well, maybe you'll like it but maybe you won't.<br />
<br />
According to the Guardian there does appear to be a scientific basis for the practice of drinking white wines while eating fish.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><span class="inline wide"><span class="caption" style="width: 460px;">Researchers
from Japanese drinks firm Mercian tested 64 varieties of wine with
scallops, and concluded that the iron content of red wine speeded up the
decay of fish, resulting in an overly ‘fishy’ taste. </span></span></span></blockquote>
How do you pick wine? <br />
<br />
Thanks to Eli Molin for the article in the Guardian. Image via Clown Fish Wines.Alexandra Bowiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11673875373023042706noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5029852782512408814.post-52957869576609261112013-09-23T11:56:00.000-04:002013-09-23T11:56:38.968-04:00<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4J8s3kX2_KAVm6Pfym9Zfg_IPOvkuJ2soAIas1ln-6UHA5ubOAOPcim_oWfSiuxSOp3kiu97tthFnKZ1N9Q1uu2hYy24x-gKRq-qJjfcpQ6lxFJ4_Fs7m66zsSnCdOpunl5zwgvOXAqc/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-09-23+at+10.03.29+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4J8s3kX2_KAVm6Pfym9Zfg_IPOvkuJ2soAIas1ln-6UHA5ubOAOPcim_oWfSiuxSOp3kiu97tthFnKZ1N9Q1uu2hYy24x-gKRq-qJjfcpQ6lxFJ4_Fs7m66zsSnCdOpunl5zwgvOXAqc/s320/Screen+Shot+2013-09-23+at+10.03.29+AM.png" width="308" /></a></div>
Last week, Eduardo Porter of the New York Times wrote this <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/19/business/americas-sinking-middle-class.html" target="_blank">column</a> about how hard it is to become - or remain - middle class in this country. The article is illustrated by those graphs in the screenshot. One statistic Porter calls staggering is that "the typical household made $51,017, roughly the same as the typical household made a quarter of a century ago." Sure, according to the graph, the median household income had ticked up above that during the late 1990s and early 2000s, but the trend has been down again since the 2008 financial crisis. Equally, shocking, we still have approximately 15% of our population living below the poverty line, a number that has been increasing over the last five years.<br />
<br />
The surface explanation is also in those charts: the richest quintile has increased its share of income to 49.9 percent of total income, from 42.1 percent starting back in 1967. According to <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/deborahljacobs/2011/11/01/occupy-wall-street-and-the-rhetoric-of-equality/" target="_blank">this article</a>, in terms of net worth, the top one percent owns 34.6% of the wealth, and the next 19% owns 50.5%. The bottom 80% owns 15% of the wealth. That makes the middle mighty small.<br />
<br />
And that fact has had some repercussions. In 2012 Porter gathered some statistics about social well-being <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/31/business/choose-your-capitalism.html" target="_blank">here</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div itemprop="articleBody">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">It is not just that <a class="meta-classifier" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/i/income/income_inequality/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier" title="More articles about income inequality.">income inequality</a>
is the most acute of any industrialized country. More American children
die before reaching age 19 than in any other rich country in the
O.E.C.D. More <a href="http://www.oecd.org/els/socialpoliciesanddata/41921050.xls" title="O.E.C.D. tables on child poverty rates.">live in poverty</a>. Many more <a href="http://www.oecd.org/social/familiesandchildren/44376110.xls" title="O.E.C.D. tables on teenage obesity rates.">are obese</a>.
When they reach their teenage years, American girls are much more
likely to become pregnant and have babies than teenagers anywhere else
in the industrial world. </span></div>
<div itemprop="articleBody">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">
</span></div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div itemprop="articleBody">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">We understand the importance of early childhood development. Yet our <a href="http://www.oecd.org/els/familiesandchildren/48967900.xls" title="O.E.C.D. data on public spending on children.">public spending on early childhood</a> is the most meager among advanced nations. We value education. Yet our <a href="http://www.oecd.org/els/socialpoliciesanddata/38969007.xls" title="O.E.C.D. chart on spending on early education and child care.">rate of enrolling 3- to 5-year-olds</a> in preschool programs is among the lowest among advanced nations. Our 15-year-olds <a href="http://www.oecd.org/social/familiesandchildren/43138957.xls" title="O.E.C.D. table of student performance by country.">place 26th out of 38 countries</a>
on international tests of mathematical literacy, according to the
O.E.C.D. The first nation to understand the value of widespread college
education, the United States has <a href="http://www.oecd.org/social/familiesandchildren/43138786.xls" title="O.E.C.D. table on academic achievement by country.">dropped from the top to the middle of the pack</a> of our economically advanced peers in terms of college graduation rates. <span style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><span> </span></span></span></div>
</blockquote>
<div itemprop="articleBody">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><span><span style="background-color: white;"><span>Porter has also gathered statistics about economic inequality <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/15/business/economy/slipping-behind-because-of-an-aversion-to-taxes.html" target="_blank">here</a>. We pay lower taxes than other industrialized nations, and we seem not to mind giving up government services as a result. </span><span> </span></span></span></span></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div itemprop="articleBody">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">The big exception has been the United States. In 1965, taxes collected
by federal, state and municipal governments amounted to 24.7 percent of
the nation’s output. In 2010, they amounted to 24.8 percent. Excluding
Chile and Mexico, the United States raises <a href="http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/taxation/total-tax-revenue_20758510-table2" title="O.E.C.D. comparative tax rates.">less tax revenue</a>, as a share of the economy, than every other industrial country. </span></div>
</blockquote>
Alexandra Bowiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11673875373023042706noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5029852782512408814.post-24000386604365739892013-09-16T11:14:00.002-04:002013-09-16T11:14:16.837-04:00Biblical Floods in Colorado<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEit1TUVyaPjRFy-9EsNNInpF9Iv-832oVwp1X1zc-q-oRR6rnb-CRZ9MfA75OM6WMAIOSS-RxAqDjf8AUrOZNiBnT4srqBEteFDLfpAuWC2ZLagam5LLGELlN9qi1s0vKpFXjoA6XovMyo/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-09-16+at+10.42.00+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEit1TUVyaPjRFy-9EsNNInpF9Iv-832oVwp1X1zc-q-oRR6rnb-CRZ9MfA75OM6WMAIOSS-RxAqDjf8AUrOZNiBnT4srqBEteFDLfpAuWC2ZLagam5LLGELlN9qi1s0vKpFXjoA6XovMyo/s320/Screen+Shot+2013-09-16+at+10.42.00+AM.png" width="320" /></a></div>
You've probably been hearing about the epic-Biblical-thousand year floods that Boulder, Colorado is experiencing. The cause is record rainfall - as you can see from the chart, above, developed by Climate Central. In fact, <a href="http://www.wunderground.com/news/colorados-biblical-flood-line-climate-trends-20130913" target="_blank">according to Weather Underground</a> and <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/biblical-1000-year-deluge-strikes-colorado-did-global-warming-play-a-role-16474" target="_blank">Climate Central</a>, Boulder, which normally gets 1.7 inches of rain in September and 20.68 for the year, got half a year's rain in less than half the month of September. (The forecast has a small chance of rain today, and then sunshine for the next few days.)<br />
<br />
What might be causing all the rain? The Pacific. According to Climate Central:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<br />
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">During the past couple of weeks, the weather across the West has
featured both an active Southwest Monsoon and a broad area of low
pressure at upper levels of the atmosphere, which has been pinned by
other weather systems and prevented from moving out of the region. It
was this persistent low pressure area that helped pull the moisture out
of the tropics and into Colorado. Signs point to the tropical Pacific
being the source of the abundant moisture according to the University of
Wisconsin’s <a href="http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/" target="_blank">Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies</a>.
From there, the moisture plume was transported northeastward, over
Mexico and into Texas, and then northward by upper level winds.
</span>
</blockquote>
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">This tropical air mass, which is more typical of the Gulf Coast than
the Rocky Mountains, has been forced to move slowly up and over the
Front Range by light southeasterly winds. This lifting process, known as
<a href="http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/447/" target="_blank">orographic lift</a>,
allowed the atmosphere to wring out this unusually bountiful stream of
moist air, dumping torrents of rain on the Boulder area for days on end. </span></blockquote>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrTndRYgF2XHUSMb5yYjumy6KYCEIrPmbwIMDXvMV1YBV2Hfvmku6006vDzxCo8wEoUWkE3pXZBxaleph4nJ1xPb_EPcCpSAxZFyk1GBtj31NgoJS8osD5WqgUCLOgHfJfA3NqwFonZ3g/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-09-16+at+10.52.47+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrTndRYgF2XHUSMb5yYjumy6KYCEIrPmbwIMDXvMV1YBV2Hfvmku6006vDzxCo8wEoUWkE3pXZBxaleph4nJ1xPb_EPcCpSAxZFyk1GBtj31NgoJS8osD5WqgUCLOgHfJfA3NqwFonZ3g/s320/Screen+Shot+2013-09-16+at+10.52.47+AM.png" width="320" /></a></div>
That's a screen shot of the satellite images loop CIMSS released showing the tropical air mass. (I couldn't find it to embed it, but click on the link to Climate Central - you can see it moving there.)<br />
<br />
Is climate change involved? No one weather event can be traced back easily to climate change, but there is at least one suggestive factor: the magnitude of the change from past events. And, of course, temperatures are rising around the globe. Generally, warmer temperatures mean more water vapor in the air, which means more extreme rain or snowfall. Stay tuned.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Alexandra Bowiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11673875373023042706noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5029852782512408814.post-5267509076323388122013-09-10T16:40:00.000-04:002017-02-20T16:23:45.126-05:00Measurement of intangibles at Harvard Business School<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtGPknoij55GwWfCsPH3R8JEbayL82PZLpptazNGzL7Ii5fzbHiV0l4wVk3zJNVvQ0YSBlNfOfShf1ojVh0uFsVxQ-Iu2JBYLdWWoKY5Zrac7qzVTlQX9hIKt5gtUNWJFmF9aucOvmOI0/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-09-10+at+4.30.21+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="127" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtGPknoij55GwWfCsPH3R8JEbayL82PZLpptazNGzL7Ii5fzbHiV0l4wVk3zJNVvQ0YSBlNfOfShf1ojVh0uFsVxQ-Iu2JBYLdWWoKY5Zrac7qzVTlQX9hIKt5gtUNWJFmF9aucOvmOI0/s320/Screen+Shot+2013-09-10+at+4.30.21+PM.png" width="320" /></a></div>
I read this <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/08/education/harvard-case-study-gender-equity.html?src=mb&_r=0" target="_blank">article</a>, published in the New York <u>Times</u> on September 7, about the administration's efforts to ensure gender equity at Harvard Business School with a great deal of interest. It's partly for the detailed glimpse into another world, and it's partly due to some of the great comments people made.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div itemprop="articleBody">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">But during [graduation] week’s festivities, the Class Day speaker, a standout
female student, alluded to “the frustrations of a group of people who
feel ignored.” Others grumbled that another speechmaker, a former chief
executive of a company in steep decline, was invited only because she
was a woman. At a reception, a male student in tennis whites blurted
out, as his friends laughed, that much of what had occurred at the
school had “been a painful experience.”</span></div>
</blockquote>
The article is relevant here because of the focus of the administrators on measurement. Here's what they did:<br />
<br />
* Turned what was subjective into an objective measure: Women in the B School lagged in class participation - but participation grades are both subjective and dependent on memory. The business school administrators posted stenographers in every class so faculty no longer had to rely on their memories.<br />
<br />
* Provided information quickly: As the reporter describes it, "[n]ew grading software tools let professors instantly check their calling and marking patterns by gender." Information was used to identify and change behavior, not to punish. In fact, it appears that the administrators pushed responsibility for change down to the front lines, making it a team effort. One professor stated that the message he got from the administration was: “We’re going to solve it at the school level, but each of you is
responsible to identify what you are doing that gets you to this point.” Management trusted workers to get the message, and to change.<br />
<br />
* Developed a theory and tested it: the article reports that an additional factor, one the school really couldn't control, was contributing to the women's minimal participation. Social success was as important as academic success, possibly more important, and class participation could hurt social capital.<br />
<br />
As you have probably surmised, all this was expensive and time consuming. At least so far, the B School administrators haven't been able to try other approaches. And it's too soon to tell whether salaries for men and women will be comparable 10 years or more after graduation. The atmosphere, as reported, sounds a lot better, but, as the article points out, the experiment brought with it unintended consequences and helped other issues - like class differences - surface. The story's not done yet, but the tale so far makes for fascinating reading. (The graphics online are much better than they were in the physical newspaper.) And so do the comments.<br />
<br />
<b>Update: </b>This post has been updated to correct a typo. Alexandra Bowiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11673875373023042706noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5029852782512408814.post-91733922428918787142013-09-04T11:37:00.002-04:002013-09-04T11:37:24.854-04:00Data Mining and You<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSpM6ZdqZavXl0Z9cv0KXZyKcsUIv4Z6tOtA9ZkEEVPZEWk2WJW6mFnr2sqtLAf_M84iHk24ncH7ElAfVO8qjCdI8dSbhyEsDo0z4jWXfQA4KKq_BlLUqgkBuq21poKqD4BotIN7rrZOE/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-09-04+at+10.15.28+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="165" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSpM6ZdqZavXl0Z9cv0KXZyKcsUIv4Z6tOtA9ZkEEVPZEWk2WJW6mFnr2sqtLAf_M84iHk24ncH7ElAfVO8qjCdI8dSbhyEsDo0z4jWXfQA4KKq_BlLUqgkBuq21poKqD4BotIN7rrZOE/s320/Screen+Shot+2013-09-04+at+10.15.28+AM.png" width="320" /></a></div>
You may have read the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/01/business/a-data-broker-offers-a-peek-behind-the-curtain.html?src=me&_r=0" target="_blank">article</a> in Sunday's New York <i>Times</i> or other news coverage about the efforts of <a href="http://www.acxiom.com/" target="_blank">Acxiom</a>, a data mining company, to make an individual's data available to him or her. The <a href="https://aboutthedata.com/" target="_blank">site</a> went live today in beta - that's a screenshot of the opening page - and I checked it out.<br />
<br />
You have to provide some information about yourself: address, birth date, and the last four numbers of your social security number. That's so Acxiom can authenticate that you are really you. When you do so, you get data in several categories, what Acxiom calls core data (address, phone number, age) and derived insights (inferences derived from your core data - eg, whether you like cooking).<br />
<br />
So what happens when you explore the data? It was kind of interesting. When I looked myself up, it had the basics of age and address right. There's not a lot of data about our housing, but our housing type means that the records are corporate, not individual, so it makes sense that there wouldn't be much information. Our car is in my name, so finding nothing about the car was a bit more of a surprise. The records indicated the presence of one of our children, with an incorrect age. There was some incomplete information about my online shopping habits - a bit skewed by the fact that we bought a lot of bed linens online when one of the kids left for college. Two years ago.<br />
<br />
Things got more interesting when it came to my spouse. He has been conflated with someone with the same name and a similar birthday who is 20 years older. That person bought an expensive condo in 2007, is of a different religion, owns a car and plays golf. So what's our conclusion? No one here is going to lose any sleep over consumer data mining.<br />
<br />
The Aboutthedata site allows you to correct the information. There seems to be little downside in doing so, but also little need to. The company argues that more accurate information means that you'll get more relevant offers in all those annoying little side ads that appear when you do web searches (or go on Facebook). I try to ignore them but sometimes find them entertaining. You also have an opt-out option, but that won't give you any fewer ads, the site explains. It will just make them less relevant.<br />
<br />
What do you think?<br />
<br />Alexandra Bowiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11673875373023042706noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5029852782512408814.post-84651940260398639092013-09-03T19:24:00.002-04:002013-09-03T19:24:49.328-04:00<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNns404GPm36QpTfZMN9Cgoni-gjaSwbvzoBVkJzZjVNDYyo6VkPL6nHXrwuzdsjPEuKv88ynj_Fn3ATXLqYPpZhz4Fhy8vxB96MBQnuP-CH895zl9DmF0iyEF4r6CHhlt3vk-bZRrAlc/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-09-03+at+7.12.59+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNns404GPm36QpTfZMN9Cgoni-gjaSwbvzoBVkJzZjVNDYyo6VkPL6nHXrwuzdsjPEuKv88ynj_Fn3ATXLqYPpZhz4Fhy8vxB96MBQnuP-CH895zl9DmF0iyEF4r6CHhlt3vk-bZRrAlc/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-09-03+at+7.12.59+PM.png" /></a></div>
That picture is moss growing on what we once thought of as a cold, snow-covered continent: Antarctica. I wrote <a href="http://asbowie.blogspot.com/2013/05/retreat-of-glaciers-uncovers-old-plants.html" target="_blank">a post</a> earlier this summer about a plants that had come in from the cold and that seemed kind of exciting. Almost sweet, in a way, that plants that had lived under the ice for so long could still bloom. But, as grist.org <a href="http://grist.org/news/antarctic-moss-a-charming-but-chilling-sign-of-warming/?utm_campaign=daily&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&sub_email=asbowie%40gmail.com" target="_blank">points out,</a> this patch of moss is yet another signal of long-term climate change. Scientists report in the underlying article, available <a href="http://www.cell.com/current-biology/retrieve/pii/S0960982213008348#Summary" target="_blank">here</a>, that "growth rates and microbial productivity have risen rapidly since the 1960s, consistent with temperature changes. . . " though growth seems to have tapered off in the most recent years. (They don't say why, but don't assume it means that the global climate has finished changing.)<br />
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: xx-small;">Image via grist.org</span><br />
<br />Alexandra Bowiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11673875373023042706noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5029852782512408814.post-82529660661842493152013-08-28T16:05:00.001-04:002013-08-28T16:05:52.106-04:00Yosemite fire in images<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3MYWxFAVnngBXnLQU0e5fYYJ80wZmNUG2-OXFdf6Hu7d7lxHa_NUIqNV3W-mK5Ok44b_udOrYUKgofTbkYRJ3KVKNNbOitlJITvIjnbNAWU0ef5o9OEu57NJeCVH3Gv0pGeGFBxH3pyg/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-08-28+at+3.59.25+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3MYWxFAVnngBXnLQU0e5fYYJ80wZmNUG2-OXFdf6Hu7d7lxHa_NUIqNV3W-mK5Ok44b_udOrYUKgofTbkYRJ3KVKNNbOitlJITvIjnbNAWU0ef5o9OEu57NJeCVH3Gv0pGeGFBxH3pyg/s320/Screen+Shot+2013-08-28+at+3.59.25+PM.png" width="320" /></a></div>
That spectacular but frightening photograph is of the Yosemite fire, one of several that TheAtlantic.com published yesterday, available <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2013/08/yosemite-wildfire/100581/" target="_blank">here</a>.<br /><br />
And from Grist.org, <a href="http://grist.org/climate-energy/9-scary-facts-about-the-yosemite-fire/?utm_campaign=daily&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&sub_email=asbowie@gmail.com" target="_blank">here</a> is what they call a list of 9 scary facts about that fire. If you have time, watch the video they've embedded - taken from a plane dumping retardant at the edge of the fire, it's got some amazing views.Alexandra Bowiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11673875373023042706noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5029852782512408814.post-2656123236482117552013-08-28T15:43:00.000-04:002013-08-28T15:43:36.778-04:00Amazon deforestation - as seen from space<div style="text-align: center;">
<iframe frameborder="0" height="394" src="http://earthengine.google.org/timelapse/player?c=http%3A%2F%2Fearthengine.google.org%2Ftimelapse%2Fdata&v=-10.22878,-63.05315,6.5&r=1&p=true" width="720"></iframe>
</div>
<br />
<br />
There's a series of GIFs from <a href="http://earthengine.google.org/#intro/LasVegas" target="_blank">Google Earth's Landsat satellite images</a> available - that's the deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon, above. The picture quality isn't great, but the degree of change is pretty clear. You can also see a series showing urban growth around the world <a href="http://www.theatlanticcities.com/neighborhoods/2013/06/devastating-impact-30-years-sprawl-seen-space/5955/" target="_blank">here</a>.<br />
<br />Alexandra Bowiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11673875373023042706noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5029852782512408814.post-19516021633437406102013-08-23T13:58:00.000-04:002013-08-23T13:58:06.631-04:00Code for America's useful new startups<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/l9zYOz2DyQk" width="560"></iframe>
</div>
I've embedded the <a href="http://codeforamerica.org/" target="_blank">Code for America</a> webinar introducing the first three startups its incubator has produced. It's an interesting hour in which three developers describe their software: all three applications provide tools that engage citizens with local government, not-for-profits, and community groups. I can think of lots of uses for each of them. They are:<br />
<br />
<a href="http://localdata.com/" target="_blank">Localdata</a> - Localdata provides tools, both electronic and paper and pencil, that allows local organizers to collect data - on anything: how many trees need trimming? Where are the commercial corridors in a neighborhood? Once data are collected, the app allows you to analyze and map the data easily.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://textizen.com/" target="_blank">Textizen</a> - Provides a text message survey platform - each survey gets its own phone number and residents phone in their thoughts. And each response can be turned into a conversation, engaging the resident more deeply.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://civicinsight.com/" target="_blank">CivicInsight</a> - CivicInsight brings all government data about a community's empty spaces available in one place in a way that is easy to understand. You can <a href="http://blightstatus.nola.gov/" target="_blank">try it out</a> for New Orleans.<br />
<br />
All three apps provide quick analytics. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
You can see my last post about Code for America <a href="http://asbowie.blogspot.com/2012/02/code-for-america.html" target="_blank">here</a>.</div>
Alexandra Bowiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11673875373023042706noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5029852782512408814.post-863918035453337842013-08-22T12:06:00.001-04:002013-08-22T12:06:42.041-04:00Mark Edmundson on teaching - and learningIf you haven't yet read about it, Mark Edmundson's new book "Why Teach?" sounds quite interesting - for a start, to anyone with kids in high school and college, but also for people with an interest in the future of education (not to mention the costs of college). There's an <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2013/08/where-should-i-go-to-college/278731/" target="_blank">excerpt</a> from the book on TheAtlantic.com titled "'Where Should I Go to College?'" in which Edmundson distinguishes universities that are more scholarly enclaves from those he calls "corporate cities." (He acknowledges that neither exists "in its pure form.") Here's how Edmundson outlines high school preparation for either kind of college:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">High school now is about being an all-arounder. You've got to be good
at your classes, but you've also got to shine as a citizen and a
general hand- waving, high- enthusiasm participant. To do this, you've
often got to make yourself into a superb time manager. You give each
activity the amount of time and effort required so that you can reach
the so- called standard of excellence. You give it that much, but you
give it no more. Do I really need to read the whole book to get an A in
English, the student asks herself? Probably she doesn't. Do I need a
tutor and extra time to score a top grade in math? Perhaps yes. If so,
the money is well spent and so is the time. Will it look better to put
in two hours a week volunteering at the hospital or four at the soup
kitchen? Does the guidance counselor say that both will look about the
same to the college admissions board? Then better to do the hospital:
You'll need those extra two hours for prom committee.</span></blockquote>
The article is worth reading in its entirety. You can also read a review of the book in the NY Times <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/21/books/mark-edmundsons-essays-ask-why-teach.html" target="_blank">here</a>. I hope you - and your kids - find the great teachers out there.<br />
<br />Alexandra Bowiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11673875373023042706noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5029852782512408814.post-35808437317200593882013-08-12T14:04:00.000-04:002013-08-12T14:04:11.629-04:00Peter Singer has an interesting Op-Ed <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/11/opinion/sunday/good-charity-bad-charity.html?pagewanted=all" target="_blank">"Good Charity, Bad Charity"</a> in yesterday's New York <u>Times</u>, in which he argues that there are clear answers to the question 'to which charity should I donate?' He argues that there is a stark choice between donating to organizations that provide medical and social services, and to cultural organizations like museums.<br />
<br />
I tend to agree, though I question his assumption that donating to a cause overseas is more important than donating to an organization that serves people in the US. (I can also see an argument that funding a museum is important - future artists need a place to go and view art, and without public museums most art would be in private collections. The rest of us sometimes need to see art too.)<br />
<br />
But what's most interesting about Singer's piece, and the reason I'm linking to it here, is his final point: there is now objective evidence of a charity's effectiveness available, and donors can use it as part of their decision-making. Singer links to both the sites of <a href="http://www.givewell.org/?gclid=CJOZtJvItLgCFdCZ4AodU2YAug" target="_blank">GiveWell</a> and <a href="http://www.givedirectly.org/" target="_blank">GiveDirectly</a>. The former ranks charities by their effectiveness. It's still fairly small, and focuses on finding outstanding charities rather than ranking all (or many) charities but to its credit GiveWell is open about its <a href="http://www.givewell.org/criteria" target="_blank">processes</a> and its <a href="http://www.givewell.org/about/shortcomings" target="_blank">mistakes. </a><br />
<br />
GiveDirectly, which is highly rated by GiveWell, transfers donations directly (and electronically) to recipients' cell phones. Recipients then use the money for whatever is important to them. GiveDirectly <a href="http://www.givedirectly.org/howitworks.php" target="_blank">reports</a>:<br />
<div class="howmoreitem" id="stuff4" style="display: block;">
<ul>
<li><span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">The most frequent self-reported use of funds is
purchasing a metal roof. We estimate the annual rate of return on on
metal as opposed to thatch roofing to be 15%-20%, suggesting this is an
attractive investment.</span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">1% of recipients report regrets about the way
they used their transfer. For example, one woman chose not to pursue a
business opportunity but later wished that she had.</span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">1% of recipients report having had some of their transfer stolen.</span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">On net, 100% report being better-off as a result of the transfer.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><span style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span>Helping organizations understand the impact of the work they perform is one of the most important things I do so it's heartening to see the progress. Organizations don't have to wait for a a GiveWell to tell them how they're doing - with a little effort, they can do it themselves. It's well worth the investment.</span></span></span></span><br />
</div>
Alexandra Bowiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11673875373023042706noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5029852782512408814.post-79613152953171655482013-07-11T15:32:00.001-04:002013-07-11T15:32:23.870-04:00Global Temperatures by Decade<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSEDpIjpVN0C4XVFJ9a7cOs_BJxIeD8N8kyVTT360_wbbBmTEq5SNlVsA0uW99qoM77xo_Nm4OtQEYkGmCKFs1eRPasa5uJWLIGma2n12sFYTzQ6U5mEtGbB5_0aS94LpbOOh-2MYB308/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-07-11+at+3.27.54+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSEDpIjpVN0C4XVFJ9a7cOs_BJxIeD8N8kyVTT360_wbbBmTEq5SNlVsA0uW99qoM77xo_Nm4OtQEYkGmCKFs1eRPasa5uJWLIGma2n12sFYTzQ6U5mEtGbB5_0aS94LpbOOh-2MYB308/s320/Screen+Shot+2013-07-11+at+3.27.54+PM.png" width="320" /></a></div>
I can't resist sharing this terrific graph that came via Grist.org. The dotted gray line is the long-term average for the period 1961-1990 so if the last two decades were included it would be much higher.<br />
<br />
Grist <a href="http://The rapid changes that have occurred since the middle of the past century, however, have been caused largely by humanity’s emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Other human activities also affect the climate system, including emissions of pollutants and other aerosols, and changes to the land surface, such as urbanization and deforestation." target="_blank">quotes</a> from the associated report:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">The rapid changes that have occurred since the middle of the past
century, however, have been caused largely by humanity’s emissions of
greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Other human activities also affect
the climate system, including emissions of pollutants and other
aerosols, and changes to the land surface, such as urbanization and
deforestation.</span></blockquote>
Alexandra Bowiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11673875373023042706noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5029852782512408814.post-68106545216239964612013-06-04T12:02:00.002-04:002013-06-04T12:02:09.352-04:00A summer respiteBlogging will be spotty over the next few months as I will be doing some traveling - see you occasionally, and definitely in September.Alexandra Bowiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11673875373023042706noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5029852782512408814.post-60628215331031509512013-05-31T13:01:00.000-04:002013-05-31T13:01:56.993-04:00Bloomberg's Billionaires<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKzOZQ50STL30xnzdSLWCZO_3Wia7Ci5wk0LaHRvxzdKW7lXLkzP7xRK0eTwZVRQkJyejp43uX4jvoAo7WjPIrv7AE8xjYYTL_JFQnwxm-Ad7vF0W7BXf4DkMvkNw6IMWHJBJDCC2TA14/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-05-30+at+3.11.12+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="172" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKzOZQ50STL30xnzdSLWCZO_3Wia7Ci5wk0LaHRvxzdKW7lXLkzP7xRK0eTwZVRQkJyejp43uX4jvoAo7WjPIrv7AE8xjYYTL_JFQnwxm-Ad7vF0W7BXf4DkMvkNw6IMWHJBJDCC2TA14/s320/Screen+Shot+2013-05-30+at+3.11.12+PM.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
Data visualization can serve two purposes and two audiences, says Lisa Strausfeld, Global Head of Data Visualization at Bloomberg LP. For the novice, it can serve as an explanation; for the expert, data visualization can guide exploration. <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/2013-05-29/aaa" target="_blank">Bloomberg Billionaires</a> - that's a screenshot above - does a bit of both. It's interactive - that's billionaires plotted by industry above. But you can also change the day, and filter sets of data. For example, the screenshot below is the net worth rankings as of March 14, 2012:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7KwVsr8S7Ujxfm5nIHpFfgr6ZYczYher8iY0neYskHvsECaSB9mCA_BqVW8bLHF0tFS4plRD7jwBHm6JuhnRYAfF81K7prTNU7iXts_RBP6UcEtVqSeiIdg_us7rleNUCrinjLwifKFE/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-05-30+at+3.12.54+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="161" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7KwVsr8S7Ujxfm5nIHpFfgr6ZYczYher8iY0neYskHvsECaSB9mCA_BqVW8bLHF0tFS4plRD7jwBHm6JuhnRYAfF81K7prTNU7iXts_RBP6UcEtVqSeiIdg_us7rleNUCrinjLwifKFE/s320/Screen+Shot+2013-05-30+at+3.12.54+PM.png" width="320" /></a></div>
Those handy little pop-up flags link to recent stories.<br />
<br />
You can also filter by industry, citizenship, gender, and source of wealth (inherited or self-made). Interestingly, Bloomberg himself does not appear on the list.<br />
<br />
<br />Alexandra Bowiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11673875373023042706noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5029852782512408814.post-53086819778364418382013-05-30T15:04:00.000-04:002013-05-30T15:04:34.172-04:00A satellite's view of the Earth<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://24.media.tumblr.com/1b148027a4bc4232552fe456c3d90dda/tumblr_mndgqpnFe91qbpwkro1_r1_250.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://24.media.tumblr.com/1b148027a4bc4232552fe456c3d90dda/tumblr_mndgqpnFe91qbpwkro1_r1_250.gif" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
This spectacular image comes from <a href="http://infinity-imagined.tumblr.com/archive" target="_blank">Infinity Imagined</a> - and shows a day's worth of weather. Photos are from the GOES-14 weather satellite - taken last week, May 22d. The individual pictures are <a href="http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goeswest/fulldisk/vis/" target="_blank">here</a>. Take a look at the full blog for more spectacular images.</div>
<a alt="4" class="brick photo timestamp_1369515233" href="http://infinity-imagined.tumblr.com/post/51328993414/earth-seen-by-the-goes-14-weather-satellite-may" id="post_51328993414" style="height: 125px; left: 524px; position: absolute; top: 51px;" target="_blank">
</a><br />
<div class="highlight">
<a alt="4" class="brick photo timestamp_1369515233" href="http://infinity-imagined.tumblr.com/post/51328993414/earth-seen-by-the-goes-14-weather-satellite-may" id="post_51328993414" style="height: 125px; left: 524px; position: absolute; top: 51px;" target="_blank">
<img class="checkmark" src="http://assets.tumblr.com/images/small_white_checkmark.png" />
<div class="tag_count" id="tag_count_51328993414" style="display: none;">
0 tags</div>
</a></div>
<a alt="4" class="brick photo timestamp_1369515233" href="http://infinity-imagined.tumblr.com/post/51328993414/earth-seen-by-the-goes-14-weather-satellite-may" id="post_51328993414" style="height: 125px; left: 524px; position: absolute; top: 51px;" target="_blank">
<div class="overlay">
<div class="inner">
</div>
</div>
</a>Alexandra Bowiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11673875373023042706noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5029852782512408814.post-30629189153766011952013-05-28T14:12:00.002-04:002013-05-28T14:12:14.788-04:00Retreat of glaciers uncovers old plants One more effect of climate change is becoming evident: plants that were frozen under ice for centuries are reviving and growing. Biologists from the University of Alberta have discovered <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryophyte" target="_blank">bryophytes</a> that last grew before the Little Ice Age (1550-1850). They are newly uncovered, and appeared to be growing in the wild. They grew in the lab, too. The abstract and article are <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2013/05/22/1304199110" target="_blank">here</a>. A news report from the BBC is <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2013/05/22/1304199110" target="_blank">here</a>. Here's what Catherine La Farge, the lead biologist, had to say:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<br />
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">"We ended up walking along the edge of the glacier margin and we saw
these huge populations coming out from underneath the glacier that
seemed to have a greenish tint," said Catherine La Farge, lead author of
the study.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">. . .</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">"When we looked at them in detail and brought them to the
lab, I could see some of the stems actually had new growth of green
lateral branches, and that said to me that these guys are regenerating
in the field, and that blew my mind," she told BBC News.
</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">"If you think of ice sheets covering the landscape, we've
always thought that plants have to come in from refugia around the
margins of an ice system, never considering land plants as coming out
from underneath a glacier."</span></blockquote>
Alexandra Bowiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11673875373023042706noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5029852782512408814.post-75032935746284398522013-05-24T11:55:00.000-04:002013-05-24T11:55:21.471-04:00Review of "Big Data" <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjc0hCWem4tvdnxVY7a84qO8acEkrLiqu-SrjEc4YFM1OnzJSiPEzhowU5bUFAeaOJMmSqKoEYSWef5jTUxwAGBnGhthI2zGLd5vZSOnVeP90_H2VVeUfqkEzimLuL2ZYIhyxjzgliz148/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-05-23+at+4.41.00+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjc0hCWem4tvdnxVY7a84qO8acEkrLiqu-SrjEc4YFM1OnzJSiPEzhowU5bUFAeaOJMmSqKoEYSWef5jTUxwAGBnGhthI2zGLd5vZSOnVeP90_H2VVeUfqkEzimLuL2ZYIhyxjzgliz148/s320/Screen+Shot+2013-05-23+at+4.41.00+PM.png" width="212" /></a></div>
I had <a href="http://asbowie.blogspot.com/2013/04/david-brooks-is-not-thinking-straight.html" target="_blank">mentioned</a> in a post that I was looking forward to reading "Big Data: A Revolution that will Transform How We Live, Work, and Think" by Viktor Mayer-Schonberger and Kenneth Cukier. Mayer-Schoberger and Cukier live (or at least write) by the law of threes, and they have three good points to make about the big data culture whose development we are witnessing:<br />
<ol>
<li>We will have so much more data that we won't need to sample;</li>
<li>More data means that we won't need to worry so much about exactitude; and</li>
<li>We will make decisions based on correlation, not causality.</li>
</ol>
Naturally, each of these ideas, when it gets a chapter of its own, gets developed a little further. (Each chapter has a clever one-word title.) In the chapter "More" the authors point out that, while a truly random sample can be quite small, it can be difficult to obtain one. Systematic biases, for example, often taint the collection process. Further, if you are analyzing a small, random sample, you often do not have enough data points to drill down further into the data. Modern computing power and the huge amount of data now available mean that analysts don't have to limit themselves to samples. Much bigger datasets allow us to "spot connections and details that are otherwise cloaked in the vastness of the information." So, they conclude, with data, bigger really is better. <br />
<br />
Large datasets, they go on in a chapter entitled "Messy," will have several types of errors: some measurements will be wrong; combining different datasets that don't always match up exactly will give approximations, rather than exact numbers. But the tradeoff, say the authors, is worth it. They provide as an example language translation programs - simple programs and more data are better at accurate translation than complex models with less data. They are careful to add that the results are not exact. "Big data transforms figures into something more probabilistic than precise."<br />
<br />
The chapter "Correlation" explains why it's not so important to know "why" when you can know, through correlations, "what" happens, or, to put it more precisely, what is more likely to happen. As the authors put it, with correlations, "there is no certainty, only probability." As a result, we need to be very chary of coincidence. (We often think we see causality when in fact we have observed correlation. Or coincidence.) They add that correlations can point the way to test for causal relationships.<br />
<br />
So far, so good. The authors go on to chapters about the turning of information into data, and the creation or capture of value. The book is written in a breezy, accessible style; it never mentions the term "Bayesian," for example, although that is clearly what the authors are talking about. But towards the end the energy peters out, and the final chapters feel like filler. The chapter "Risks," which raises some entirely speculative concerns - that we might be punished simply for our "propensity" to behave in a certain way, for example - feels rushed and empty. Its over-simplification of the US criminal justice system made me wonder what else might have been altered beyond recognition. So read the first part of the book for its useful outline of what big data entails, but go elsewhere for a more serious discussion of the policy implications.<br />
<span style="font-size: xx-small;">Image via Amazon.com</span><br />
Alexandra Bowiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11673875373023042706noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5029852782512408814.post-10803504499214485822013-05-22T12:04:00.000-04:002013-05-22T12:04:59.337-04:00Sixty years of tornadoes<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgf4Re_SbF2EQRl1wBp414ZGG5_IZWeS9H-lh0ahy4ME7TgyCsFAmYuMrTKuvZxv91jqc9RGXIOPH9Iqfn7TS9ozMT4p1V6Wt6Tu9sYIrTauFmV62RDUICvwEdhFCwRhbF4FByht_fBppA/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-05-22+at+8.37.46+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="172" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgf4Re_SbF2EQRl1wBp414ZGG5_IZWeS9H-lh0ahy4ME7TgyCsFAmYuMrTKuvZxv91jqc9RGXIOPH9Iqfn7TS9ozMT4p1V6Wt6Tu9sYIrTauFmV62RDUICvwEdhFCwRhbF4FByht_fBppA/s320/Screen+Shot+2013-05-22+at+8.37.46+AM.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
That screenshot? It's the tracks of all the tornadoes over the last 60 years, at least those that caused enough damage to be recorded. It's intimidating, but a little misleading, since that's all of them since 1951. You can see a video of the tracks by year below, produced by IDV Solutions. Each trail (or dot) is an individual tornado; the fiercer the winds the brighter the trail. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.youtube.com/embed/1d8OVf829kw?feature=player_embedded' frameborder='0'></iframe> </div>
<br />
You can also find a longer video with the tracks by month <a href="http://www.idvsolutions.com/Demos/interactive-tornado-map.aspx" target="_blank">here</a>. <br />
<br />
NOAA answers some basic questions about tornadoes, <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/#History" target="_blank">here</a>.Alexandra Bowiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11673875373023042706noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5029852782512408814.post-24242678599796699062013-05-21T12:12:00.002-04:002013-05-21T12:12:51.821-04:00Interactive wildfire map<br />
<br />
<iframe height="580" scrolling="NO" src="http://widgets.climatecentral.org/firemap/index.html?utm_source=external&utm_medium=embed&utm_campaign=wildfiremap" width="720"></iframe>Thanks to our friends at <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/wildfire-interactive-helps-track-the-springs-fire-blaze-near-la-15954" target="_blank">Climate Central</a> for this handy map showing active wildfires in the US. If you click in you can get the name of the fire, the fire's size in acres, and other information. The map is updated daily.<br />
<br />Alexandra Bowiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11673875373023042706noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5029852782512408814.post-89306893905062284882013-05-20T08:14:00.001-04:002013-05-20T08:14:14.925-04:00One simple - too simple? - graph to explain US economy's performance<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNmtZkqGu7NH6DpEoicjbia0t2sinQ0428Nul3qMc3Y6bkpECVWMg5yv6i70PxHw1_-88sGFM266Ee2p0jhBAJliKnK2CXqswOCYawLpoteNu8Z1C3njVQJfRm3fgeIO47BnW6iuRPGYg/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-05-20+at+7.58.33+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNmtZkqGu7NH6DpEoicjbia0t2sinQ0428Nul3qMc3Y6bkpECVWMg5yv6i70PxHw1_-88sGFM266Ee2p0jhBAJliKnK2CXqswOCYawLpoteNu8Z1C3njVQJfRm3fgeIO47BnW6iuRPGYg/s320/Screen+Shot+2013-05-20+at+7.58.33+AM.png" width="320" /></a></div>
The graph comes from <a href="http://thomsonreuters.com/products_services/financial/financial_products/a-z/datastream/#tab1" target="_blank">Thomson Datastream</a> via Derek Thompson of <a href="http://theatlantic.com/">TheAtlantic.com</a> - and it shows that the US economy's performance over the last five years was better than that of comparable developed countries: a shallower recession with a faster recovery. Thompson <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/05/a-simple-graph-that-should-silence-austerians-and-gold-bugs-forever/275930/" target="_blank">attributes</a> this performance to the facts that:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">(a) control our own currency and (b) used aggressive monetary policy to
save the banks and lower interest rates while running high deficits.</span> </blockquote>
Do you agree? What's your interpretation of the graph? <br />
<br />Alexandra Bowiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11673875373023042706noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5029852782512408814.post-48753668153716922832013-05-16T16:35:00.002-04:002013-05-16T16:35:26.800-04:00The importance of contextThe New York <u>Times</u> ran an <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/16/us/in-calculation-of-military-rates-the-numbers-are-not-all-straightforward.html?emc=tnt&tntemail1=y&_r=0" target="_blank">article</a> in today's paper describing the differences in methodology used to develop suicide rates for the military, and the methodology used to develop the rate for the civilian population. The <u>Times</u> says that Pentagon medical statisticians use <br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">a total population figure that includes all
Guard members or reservists who spent any period of time on active duty
in a given year, even if it was only a few days. According to that
approach, the total active military population was about 1.67 million
for all of 2009, a review of Pentagon data shows. </span><br />
<div itemprop="articleBody">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">
</span></div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div itemprop="articleBody">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">But at almost any given moment, the United States military is much
smaller than that. Another office of the Pentagon, the Defense Manpower
Data Center, the personnel record-keeping office, used a total
population number of about 1.42 million service members in 2009. That
figure was calculated by including only National Guard and reserve
troops who had been on active duty for at least six months in a given
year.</span> </div>
</blockquote>
Therefore, because the denominator is too large, the military has been understating the suicide rate. (You can find a reasonably explanation of calculation of a rate <a href="http://www.rice.edu/projects/HispanicHealth/HealthStatus/HealthStat.html" target="_blank">here</a>.) Why is this important? Because when the military rate and the civilian rates are comparable, there's less of a problem. Alexandra Bowiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11673875373023042706noreply@blogger.com0